- Sept 23, the market broke the base of the rising wedge since July (then at 1992).
- Oct 1, market took out the base of the even larger rising wedge from Nov 2012 (currently at 1952/55).
- Resistance at base of large wedge since Nov 2012 (currently 1550/55)
and bearish trendline from Sept 20th (currently at 1980/85).
- Support is seen at 1902/07 (Aug 7th low).
As discussed above, looks like the view of sharply lower prices into at least the late Oct timeframe is indeed playing out. Note too that a number of more major, long term negatives remain, and continues to argue potential for a more significant top (9-12 months or more). No doubt the market is very overbought after the huge surge from the March 2009 low at 667, appear to be within the final upleg in the rally from at least the Oct 2011 low at 1075 (wave V), and the market has indeed broken down from the "rising wedge in a larger rising wedge" pattern. Initial downside target/support is seen at 1655/65 (both the base of the huge bullish channel since the March 2009 low at 667 and a 38% retracement from the Nov 2012 low at 1343, see in red on weekly chart/2nd chart below). Bottom line : break of the base of the large rising wedge since 2012 adding to the view of sharp declines toward an initial 1655/65 ahead (may be sharp).